When representatives of more than 190 countries of the world come together for the World Climate Summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in two weeks, an assessment will be made. In the Glasgow Climate Pact, the states had committed themselves in 2021 to phase out coal and to reduce subsidies for fossil fuels. Until the meeting in Egypt, they should refine their plans in order to keep the 1.5-degree target agreed in the Paris climate agreement within reach. It says that by 2100 the Earth should heat up by a maximum of 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period.
However, this project is increasingly in danger, warns a team of international climate experts in a report presented shortly before the summit. "Red alarm level applies to the earth," the scientists write. "Current politics means that the planet heats up by about three degrees Celsius by 2100, a temperature level that the earth has not experienced in the past three million years," says the analysis with the title »World Scientists 'Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022 «.
In it, an international research team analyses how the most important drivers of climate change have developed in recent years and warns of the devastating effects that human-caused global warming is already having on nature today. In contrast to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which usually evaluate time series that were longer in the past due to their long development process, the researchers are based on the US ecologist William J. Ripple from Oregon State University in their report published in the journal "BioScience" on very current data and also already include the numerous natural disasters from the year 2022 in their assessment.
16 of the 35 earth's vital signs are at record levels.
In order to analyze how the climate crisis is currently developing, the authors use a model of 35 indicators – so–called planetary vital signs - which stand for the state of the planet. Variables such as the development of economic growth, the number of passengers in air transport or per capita energy consumption are used as indicators of the extent of climate-influencing human activities, while the development of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, measured values for ocean warming or data on the loss of global foliage are used as a yardstick for the consequences of these activities.
According to the report, 16 of the 35 analyzed vital signs record historical maximum values. The three most important greenhouse gases - CO2, methane and laughing gas - set up new records for concentration in the atmosphere this year. The carbon dioxide concentration, for example, reached 418 ppm (parts per million) in March, the highest monthly global average concentration. Hopes of a permanent decline in greenhouse gas emissions after the strong slump during the Corona pandemic were thoroughly disappointed. The low consumption of fossil fuels and the associated comparatively low carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 proved to be "outlier" on the way to new heights.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine throws climate policy back even further. "We are seeing how electricity, diesel and petrol prices are being lowered in the EU with taxpayers' money," says Johan Rockström, co-author of the study and head of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in an interview with Das, which is exactly the wrong way to end dependence on Russian oil and gas and really accelerate the exit from fossil raw materials.
In the long term, however, the war could help. "We are now seeing how destructive it is for both the economies and the planet to sit on the lap of autocratic rulers who have fossil fuels," warns Rockström. It is important to become independent with the help of renewable energies and thus to create economically and socially resistant and sustainable economies.
Heat brings the dengue virus.
But that is the future music. According to the global warming of the analysis, there is still no trend reversal. The current year is on the best way to become one of the warmest since the start of the records. The thermal energy stored in the world's oceans rose again strongly and is located on a record high. The thickest of the glacier ice cream and the Greenland ice mass, on the other hand, have the lowest previously measured values. The number of extremely hot days has almost doubled since 1980. This is accompanied by extreme droughts, floods and large forest fires as well as an increasing spread of the dengue virus transmitted by mosquitoes. In the meantime, almost half of the world's population lives in areas where the virus circulates.
According to the analysis, the energy transition required for a trend reversal in the climate crisis has progressed, but not nearly at a pace that would be hopeful the researchers: although the global production of solar and wind energy between 2020 and 2021 Fifth increase, according to the report, it is still about 18 times lower than the consumption of fossil fuels. In view of more than 400 running or planned projects for the extraction of fossil fuels, a quick rethink with a potential carbon dioxide emissions of at least one gigaton are not evident. The emissions of these projects alone add up to about twice the maximum carbon budget, which would have to be met to keep the 1.5 degree mark.
These developments are not without consequences. "The frequency and severity of climate-related disasters seem to be increasing significantly right now," says William J. Ripple. In an overview, the researchers list several dozen environmental tragedies for the year 2022 alone, which they attribute to climate change. This includes, for example, the heat waves and forest fires in Germany this summer as well as the dried-up riverbeds in numerous European countries. Tragically, Ripple points out, but those countries that contributed the least to the disaster paid a particularly high price. 33 million people, including 16 million children, had to flee from the mega flood in Pakistan, which submerged a third of the huge country in the summer.
Aversion to tipping points
However, the greatest concern for the researchers is the evidence of an increasingly uncontrollable development of climate change by exceeding tipping points. There is evidence that the sharp increase in forest fires is not linearly linked to the rise in temperatures. "While the temperatures on Earth are currently still creeping upwards, the frequency and extent of climate catastrophes could jump upwards," the researchers warn. This, for example, drastically increases the risk that harvests could fail in several regions of the world at the same time, leading to an unprecedented global food crisis.
"Awareness of people caused by humans is high worldwide," says Klimafor's Rockström. "But the insight that we approach uncontrollable and potentially catastrophic risks is not clearly enough." For Rockström, the climate summit must be the moment in a few weeks, "in which the negotiators recognize once and for all how important the global Is up the upper limit of 1.5 degrees «. If the brand will be exceeded, it is likely that several large tilting points will be exceeded and, for example, the abrupt thawing of the boreal permafrost threatens. »And we have already experienced a year with extreme drought and strong heat, with floods and storms, with a warming by 1.2 degrees. The consequences are becoming more and more uncontrollable step by step. "
Climate protection, nature conservation, justice
In their recommendations for action, the researchers stand behind an approach, as recently recommended by the global climate. There it is said that climate change is the result of ecological supervision of the planet, which exceeds the regeneration ability of the ecosystems. "We have to get overuse and at the same time increase the climate protection measures." In addition to avoiding almost all emissions from fossil fuels, key factors are therefore better protection of nature, a significant reduction in consumption and waste by the global middle class, especially in the wealthy countries. Access for girls and women to more education and rights as well as the implementation of sustainable ecological economy that guarantees social justice should also become part of the climate protection. In addition, you recommend that you also better research technical options for how the atmosphere can be withdrawn carbon dioxide.
"The fact that natural disasters are increasing shows that we are in the middle of a global crisis, which could be even worse if we continue as before," the experts warn. And possibly addressing the climate negotiators in Sharm el-Sheikh, they explain: "There is more at stake today than ever before since the formation of our climate system more than 10,000 years ago – we are on the precipice and have the opportunity to change life on Earth immensely." At the same time, it is important not to fall into passivity in view of the gloomy situation. "Instead of losing hope, we need to put an end to ecological destruction and immediately take massive measures to curb climate change and adapt to it.«
The study authors formulate high expectations of climate policy in the next few years. "The future of humanity depends on creativity, morality and the perseverance of the people who live on this planet today," they write in their outlook. This is the only way to limit damage, preserve nature and avoid unspeakable human suffering. From the upcoming summit in Egypt, ecologist Ripple hopes that a signal in this direction hopes. "The heads of state and government must show that they have understood that we are in a real crisis and commit to thorough political initiatives that are appropriate for the severity of the crisis." Vitalmarks model: »How to observe that more and more governments are calling for the climate emergency. This is an encouraging sign - even if we have a long way to go. "
