The state institution GNS Science in New Zealand has been sued for the devastating volcanic eruption on White Island in 2019. The Research Institute of Geosciences has pleaded not guilty. The natural disaster killed 22 people and injured 25. The volcano of White Island erupted on 9 December 2019 about 48 kilometres north of the North Island of New Zealand. At that time, a hydrovolcanic steam explosion occurred, i.e. an eruption of steam, rock and other volcanic material.
The court process is unusual because state research authorities have so far rarely been prosecuted due to natural disasters. Some experts now fear that the lawsuit against the GNS Science could have negative consequences: to subject to a scientific institution because of its warnings in the event of a disaster, the ability to act could significantly restrict such an authority.
Other experts, on the other hand, are of the opinion that the outcome of the trial could clarify what role GNS Science and the co-defendants would have had to play and whether they should have borne responsibility when it comes to the safety of people.
"One of the questions that this case raises is how far a scientific organization has to go to present information in such a way that it is accessible to the public - and how to judge whether it has done so," says the Lawyer Simon Connell from University of Otago in the New Zealand Dunedin, who specializes in accident rights.
A volcano as a destination for travelers
White Island, which is also known as the Māori name Whatcaari, is one of the most active volcanoes of New Zealand and at the same time a popular tourist destination. Visitors always got down to the crater soil. The volcanologist Raymond Cas from Monash University in Clayton, Australia, is convinced that the 2019 tragedy was "an expected disaster". It is reminiscent of an outbreak in April 2016, which is comparable from the extent, but occurred at night when nobody was on the island.
In November 2020, New Zealand's Occupational Health and Safety and Prevention Inspectorate WorkSafe New Zealand filed two charges against GNS Science. These relate to a period from April 2016 to December 2019. This covered the two most recent outbreaks. Both lawsuits seek a fine of approximately 1.5 million New Zealand dollars (approximately 900,000 euros) each. This is the first time that the New Zealand Occupational Health and Safety Act of 2015 has been used to sue a scientific institution. The law usually extends to workplaces such as factories, says Len Andersen, an occupational health and safety lawyer in Dunedin.
The New Zealand Occupational Safety Agency Worksafe New Zealand does not comment on the case, but in a statement published on November 30, 2020, the managing director Phil Parkes is cited in the following words: The outbreak was "an unexpected but not an unpredictable event", and all companies As well as people who were involved in the transportation of people to the island, had the obligation to protect the people entrusted to them. The co -accused include seven tour operators and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the state disaster protection authority of New Zealand.
Had the authorities failed to warn the population in 2019?
The first indictment is that GNS Science failed to ensure the health and safety of the helicopter pilots, which she commissioned to transport her own employees to the island. The second indictment refers to the fact that GNS Science would have coordinated with other authorities and tour operators and "the structure, the content and transmission of its volcanic warnings" should have checked to ensure that they "effectively communicate the effects of volcanic activity" .
Nature has asked GNS Science for comment, but the agency will not comment while the matter is still in court.
GNS Science issues warnings for the eleven active volcanoes of New Zealand as well as for the volcanic field not far from the country's most populous city, Auckland. The alerts are published via a service called GeoNet, which forwards them to registered media, emergency organisations and the general public. The situation reports contain observations of volcanic activity and use them to determine a volcano warning level, which includes a scale from 0 to 5.
It is a widespread mistake that the volcanic warning levels used worldwide represent a prediction. But that's not the case - not even in New Zealand. "It is simply a measure of what is happening with a volcano," explains Tom Wilson, expert for volcanic driving at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch. To predict the outbreak of a volcano is one of the most difficult things in a volcanic system, "adds the volcanologist Roberto Sulpizio from the University of Bari - especially in the event of eruptions with hydrovulcan steam explosion as it occurred on White Island.
The volcano warning system in New Zealand cannot indicate future disasters, Wilson emphasizes. And it is currently unclear who should be responsible for assessing such dangers when people visit the island, he continues. "Ultimately, this must be examined in court.«
Can an outbreak be predicted?
In the weeks before the outbreak in December 2019, the warning reports listed seismic activities, mud and gas emissions as well as a changed water level in the Kratersee. The charges therefore also expressly refer to the fact that it has been missed to classify and communicate the danger. The Nema, the state disaster protection authority of New Zealand, is accused of not having informed the public sufficiently about the risks. There are allegations against tour operators and another defendant that they would not have been assessed by the risk.
According to volcanic expert Wilson, such obligations are hardly fulfilled for the tour operators. "A solid assessment of the volcanic risk is damn difficult," he says. "You demand quite demanding reviews from relatively small companies." But very few people worldwide are qualified for this.
A condemnation of GNS Science could lead other scientific institutions that provide information about natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and forest fires into a dilemma. What information can they still provide without being held liable – and how should they communicate it, especially when their data decides how to manage risks? One consequence could be that they no longer make them publicly available for fear of criminal prosecution, suspects lawyer Connell. "Everyone is waiting to see what happens next," says Wilson.
The extraordinary situation is reminiscent of another case: 309 people died in the earthquake of L'Aquila 2009 in central Italy. Subsequently, six scientists and a government official were initially convicted of manslaughter. The defendant scientists went into appeal and got right. The case led to an intensive discussion among geoscientists about how the public should best be informed about natural hazards. "The case dominated the talks at some conferences of seismological societies," says Charlotte Rowe, seismologist at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico.
According to Rowe, geologists are working on conveying volcanic dangers worldwide. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) based in Montreal uses an internationally recognized warning system for volcanoes. However, the warning levels on land are not standardized. "But we are in the process of developing something," explains Rowe.
In Japan, unlike in the USA, New Zealand or Italy - the national weather authority publishes volcanic warnings that expressly refer to certain danger levels. The warnings also contain indications of measures to follow people, such as evacuating areas. In Italy, the L'Aquila disaster has meant that the tasks and responsibilities of the scientists and disaster protection are now clearly defined, says Sulpizio.
White Island has not been allowed to visit since the 2019 outbreak. It is open whether the island can ever be approached again. “It's about difficult, ethical questions. But we have to discuss it, «says Wilson.
On June 3, 2021, the NEMA did not formally guilty in court, followed by all other co -accused on August 26th. The next hearing before the Whakatane district court near White Island is scheduled for October 21.
© Springer Nature 10.1038/D41586-021-02658-5, 2021
