The decisive indicator of measures against Covid-19, the hospitalization incidence, is unusable. Experts indicate that the numbers are simply not complete and therefore do not offer a realistic picture of the situation. While new infections are reported almost completely within a few days, this can take two weeks and more when delivering the hospital, the Science Media Center (SMC) reports on data from Robert Koch-Inititut (RKI). The delay of reporting also varies between the federal states. The cause of the problem is that the registration system is not automated. In addition, the time interval between the positive test and hospital delivery distorts the statistics. Yesterday, the Prime Minister conference agreed to this value as a measure of the introduction of contact restrictions.
Already in September, experts had critically assessed the hospitalization incidence. The data quality is significantly expandable, said for example, the intensive care physician Christian Karagiannidis the SMC. The reason is the reporting system, in which medical staff must fax a registration form to the health department. On the other hand, the data on incidence values and intensive care bed occupancy are extremely good. At that time, the Robert Koch Institute had proposed these three measures as leading indicators on the basis of which the control measures should be aligned.
The indicator could be improved if you use models that try to add the reporting. The RKI is already using this technology known as "nowcasting" to compensate for the delay in reporting in the infections. With such models, for example, experts from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies (Hits) come to the conclusion that the hospitalization incidence on November 17 was already around 10, about 50 powder of 6.7. However, the results of the models have not yet been sufficiently checked, according to the project's website.
In addition to the exposure to the report, the hospitalization incidence also contains a further, technically not solving delay by the period of time that goes to hospital between infection and admission. According to RKI, this is four days on average. When it comes to the number of cases, the seven-day incidence increases by around 50 per 100,000 people during this period-with correspondingly large number of additional diseases. In addition, even under favorable circumstances, hospitalization does not gain knowledge to the incidence. Thanks to the vaccinations, fewer people come to the hospital, but since the proportion of vaccinated people in the population is currently stagnating, both indicators are closely linked.
